Chaos in Iraq

August 30, 2003

As you’ve undoubtedly heard by now, Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim was killed by a car bomb in Iraq on Friday, along with scores of followers who were there for Friday prayers. The news wires are already rippling with Al Qaeda links and Bush has stated that this is an attempt by terrorists to create chaos in Iraq. Something makes me think that they don’t really have to try.

This is worrying US officials because, according to the San Francisco Chronicle:His death removes his credibility and prestige from the Supreme Council, which is already locked in a growing rivalry with younger, more militant clerics seeking to give voice to Iraqis’ growing frustration with the U.S.-led occupation. This is very unfortunate for our place there, but underscores yet another point in many anti-war protestors urges. Iraqis are the only people who can give Iraqis peace. Every time I hear about one of these happenings, I stop and wonder to myself: Would this be happening if we weren’t there? Probably not.

The warnings were all there and set into place. Middle Eastern countries warned the Bush Administration that getting into this mess without doing it with just the right amount of finesse would result in civil war, but no one listened. One of the most consistent and ominous prewar warnings to the Bush administration by Middle East experts was that removal of Saddam Hussein without the most careful political and social engineering would result in the breaking apart of Iraq into warring factions that would battle each other for decades. [Link]Even if you set aside the warnings ahead of time, al-Hakim should have had excellent security to prevent this, particularly concerning how important he was to the US and to any goal of democracy in Iraq. Where was his protection? Where was his aid? If we brought him back, we had a responsibility to keep him from being slain.

Now, we’re looking at a nearly inevitable civil war. Regardless of who started this, the Shi’a will now take it as a call to war, and it won’t be long until they and the Sunni are firing at each other across open streets.

- Stacy

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